Bernie on the Scene: AL East Analysis & Predictions

The American League East wasn't that difficult for me to analyze. 

The payroll estimates are those of FanGraphs. The win totals and lineups are mine.

Unlike college, a grade of C shouldn't be alarming. It means the player has average major league ability.

I am not providing grades for bench players.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

NEW YORK YANKEES
Estimated Payroll: $201M (Note: The Yankees are only $9M from MLB Luxury Tax Hell)
My Estimated Win Total: 100 

Lineup: Powerful and Explosive

DJ LeMahieu, 2B, BR, Grade A-
A pure hitter with a batting title possible

Aaron Judge, RF, BR, Grade A
Lethal bat if he can keep his huge body healthy

Aaron Hicks, CF,  BB, Grade B-
Solid on-base percentage, but has to stay in lineup

Giancarlo Stanton, DH, BR, Grade B+
Can dominate if he isn't injured

Luke Voit, 1B, BR, Grade B
I still think he is underrated for his power in Yankee Stadium

Gleyber Torres, SS, BR, Grade B-
One of the better SS who doesn't get much love

Gary Sanchez, C, BR, Grade C
I'm not sure he lasts the entire season unless he turns it around

Clint Frazier, LF, BR, Grade C
Can offer some home runs, but not much else

Gio Urshela, 3B, BR, Grade B-
Has made himself a quality hitter

Rotation: Questionable and Thin

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Grade A
Best in baseball, or is that deGrom?

Jameson Taillon, RHP, Grade B-
New life in New York pays off for him in a big way

Corey Kluber, RHP, Grade B-
I think there is more left in his aging tank

Jordan Montgomery,  LHP, Grace C+
Lefty will be very important with slim pitching depth

Domingo German, RHP, Grade C
Not sure he keeps this job, but he has talent

Closer: Still Special

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Grade A-
Any MLB club would love to have this arm in their pen

The Yankees should run away with the American League East — if. If Judge, Stanton and Hicks can stay healthy, there is no offense like the Yankees. Not even the Braves or Nationals. I doubt Gary Sanchez keeps his job if he can't improve his defense and contact rate. I also have huge concerns about a pitching staff that needs Luis Severino to get back to the mound in good shape as soon as possible. Can Corey Kluber come back? So while there are questions, this is still a very solid 100 win team.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Estimated Payroll: $139M
My Estimated Win Total: 90

Lineup: Much Improved and Deep

George Springer, CF, BR, Grade B+
A terrific addition to both sides of the ball

Marcus Semien, 2B, BR,  Grade C+
Better than average player, solid enough for this club

Bo Bichette, SS, BR, Grade B
Improving with upside remaining

Teoscar Hernandez, RF, BR, Grade B-
An under-the-radar power hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B, BR, Grade B
I don't think we have seen the best yet

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF, BR, Grade B-
He could hit 25 homers in a solid lineup

Cavan Biggio, 3B, BL, Grade C+
I'm not as big a fan as some people, but he's solid

Rowdy Tellez, DH, BL, Grade C
He could platoon here with Grichuck

Danny Jansen, C, BR, Grade C
Not much offense from him if he's the starter

Rotation: Very Questionable and Thin

Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP, Grade B-
A solid starter who has battled injuries in the past

Robbie Ray, LHP, Grade C
Velocity improving, but he still walks far too many

Tanner Roark, RHP, Grade C
A mediocre mid, rotation starter, nothing more

Steven Matz, LHP, Grade C
New league, new team, new Matz? We'll see

Ross Stripling, RHP, Grade C
Nice acquisition fills in for injured Nate Pearson

Closer: Acceptable

Kirby Yates, RHP, Grade C+, I've seen good and I've seen bad; Better than average when healthy,  but will miss multiple weeks with an arm injury

The Blue Jays improved with the additions of Springer, Semien and even Yates. They should be able to beat up on the Orioles and Red Sox and may even fight the Yankees to win it all. But I doubt it. The loss of Nate Pearson to his constant injuries is not good at all. They have been counting on him being in their rotation. I don't like the pitching. I do like the offense. They will have to score a ton of runs to overcome the mediocre pitching staff. I look for huge years from the top seven, or even 8, hitters. If a few of them come through with career years, watch out.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Estimated Payroll: $66M
My Estimated Win Total: 85

Lineup: Potentially Powerless

Austin Meadows, DH, BL, Grade C+
Which guy shows up? So far, potential but few results

Brandon Lowe, 2B, BL, Grade B-
A lot of upside remains and he could really surprise

Randy Arozarena, LF, BR, Grade B
Show me again this year and I promise I'll believe it

Ji-Man Choi, 1B, BL, Grade C+
He will likely be platooned, so be careful about drafting him

Manuel Margot, RF, BR, Grade C
I don't see much pop in this bat at all

Joey Wendle, 3B, BL, Grade C
Another mediocre hitter with little to no power

Willy Adames, SS, BR, Grade C+
Gives way to Wander Franco and likely moves to 2B

Kevin Kiermaier, CF, BL, Grade C
Not a guy you want on your fantasy outfield roster

Mike Zunino, C, BR, Grade C-
Occasional power isn't worth a roster spot

Rotation: Spotty and Depleted

Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Grade B+
The best they have now on a declining rotation

Ryan Yarbrough, LHP, Grade B-
Can step in and step up, but watch for too few innings

Chris Archer, RHP, Grade C-
I am clearly not a fan and I think he'll lose starts

Rich Hill, LHP, Grade C-
How soon until he's injured once again?

Michael Wacha, RHP, Grade C-
You've fallen a ton since your first seasons with St. Louis

Closer: Good Enough Committee

Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Grade C
He may get his share of chances to close along with two others

Nick Anderson, RHP, Grade B-
I think he's a solid option

Diego Castillo, RHP, Grade 
If I were Kevin Cash, he'd be my closer. Period.

The Rays have depleted their starting pitching and I think it will come back to haunt them. They will improve if they get Yonny Chirinos back, but they won't. He looks to be out for the year after Tommy John surgery late last August. The offense reminds me of the Indians. Lack of impact hitters. The Rays might fall more than any team in baseball. Losing guys like Snell and Morton has to hurt. I just don't see this team keeping up with either New York or Toronto. The Rays will lose plenty of games to those two clubs, lowering their own win total and chances to repeat as a World Series team. The offense just can't score enough runs to cover mediocre pitching. They do have pitching waiting in the wings, but they will be reluctant to start service-time clocks running.

BOSTON RED SOX
Estimated Payroll: $189M
My Estimated Win Total: 77

Lineup: Hopeful With Some Very Weak Spots

Enrique Hernandez, 2B, BR, Grade C
I think they could have done better in the offseason

Alex Verdugo, CF, BL, Grade C+
Red Sox fans still wonder where Mookie Betts has gone

J.D. Martinez, DH, BR, Grade B-
Red Sox are badly burnt toast if he fails to deliver

Xander Bogaerts, SS,  Grade B
A bright spot in a dismal lineup

Rafael Devers, 3B, BL, Grade B+
Huge year looms for a star not yet 25

Hunter Renfroe, RF, BR, Grade C+
Green Monster will get a work out, but strikeouts mount

Marwin Gonzalez, LF, BB, Grade C
Steady and versatile Swiss Army Knife

Christian Vazquez, C, BR, Grade C
Not a bad bat at a very weak fantasy position

Bobby Dalbec, 1B, BR, Grade B-
He's on his way to a big career

Rotation: Dreadful

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Grade C+
Now healthy after rough COVID battle, and a solid starter

Garrett Richards, RHP, Grade C
You'll be taking the bad with the worse, especially in Fenway

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Grade C
An average starter in a very weak rotation

Martin Perez, LHP, Grade C-
I have no idea how this guy keeps a job

Nick Pivetta, RHP, Grade C-
They had seen enough in Philadelphia and so have I

Closer: Acceptable

Matt Barnes, RHP, Grade C
An average closer leading a thin, hopeless bullpen

The Red Sox likely will try to trade J.D. Martinez when they fall woefully behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays … in May. This is a bad baseball team. Yes, I do like Bogaerts, Devers and Dalbec, but these are the Red Sox. They should be much, much better. They simply slept through the offseason like a bear in hibernation. The pitching is the real problem. From the rotation to the bullpen, this is a very thin and mediocre collection of re-treads and has beens. Not for me, thank you.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Estimated Payroll: $60M
My Estimated Win Total: 60

Lineup: Weak And Shallow

Cedric Mullins, CF, BL, Grade C
Looks like he may be able to offer some stolen bases

Trey Mancini, DH, BR, Grade B
So glad to see him back and healthy with his strong bat

Anthony Santander, RF, BB, Grade C+
A better than average hitter in a nice lineup spot

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, BR, Grade C+
I think he may have 25 home run power in Camden Yards

Chance Sisco,  C,  BL,  Grade C
Not much offense and I think he'll platoon with Pedro Severino

Austin Hays, LF, BR, Grade C
He gets his chance, but he has to stay healthy and hit

Maikel Franco, 3B, BR, Grade C
He can do some damage in Camden Yards

Freddy Galvis, SS, BB, Grade C-
He always seems to find a job, but he won't hit much

Yolmer Sanchez, 2B, BB, Grade C-
Traveled around and landed in Baltimore, but not much help

Rotation: Abominable

John Means, LHP,  Grade C
An average starter and the best on a bleak rotation

Dean Kremer, RHP, Grade C-
He could be the first in a line of 5.00 or higher ERAs.

Keegan Akin, LHP, Grade C-
Look mom, I'm in a major league rotation

Jorge Lopez, RHP, Grade C-
I don't see any hope for him against solid East clubs

Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade C-
Haven't we seen this movie before? It always ends badly

Closer: Inept Committee

Tanner Scott, LHP, Grade C
May be the best of the bad

Cesar Valdez, RHP, Grade C-
Next?

Dillon Tate, RHP, Grade C-
Next?

Travis Lakins Sr., Grade C-
That's all folks

How a team can expect to win with a Triple-A rotation and a makeshift bullpen is beyond me. Look at the team payroll and you'll see why the the team is where they are. Simply put, they're cheap. The bullpen arms likely will fall off or we will see a constant shuffling of pitchers in every role. This is a team without hope. But I do have some hope myself. I hope Mancini and Santander can get out soon.

HEADING HOME

Last week, I said I would highlight some of the best players I have seen this spring. That will happen at the end of spring training, when I have had greater and more in-depth looks at more players.

What manager Indians Terry Francona did to Amed Rosario last week was shameful. Rosario had never —and let me repeat that, never — played the outfield in a game. Francona started him in CF in a game I watched from the press box. Rosario had no clue how to catch a fly ball. None. His routes were wrong. His glove was too low. It was an embarrassment to him, to Francona and to the team. Trying to solve a problem in center with Rosario is just not the right answer. The team had all offseason to fix it, and didn't.

Some say the new baseballs will hurt home run production. So far, there has been an increase year-over-year in spring training home runs. Go figure. But, I do think we'll see some negative home run regression overall in 2021.

Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff  and read my baseball columns at Forbes.com.