This article is part of our Handicapping the NBA series.
Clint Capela under 14.5 rebounds (+100) vs. NOP – PointsBet (1:18 PM CT)
Capela is excellent on the boards. He's averaged 13.9 rebounds across the past 10 games. But he's going up against Steven Adams, who is fueling the Pelicans' great rebounding. New Orleans allows the fewest rebounds per game (40.4) to opponents. I'm happy to get plus odds on such a high number for Capela.
Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110) at GSW – DraftKings (12:23 PM CT)
Assuming Giannis Antetokounmpo plays (he's listed as probable), this line feels way too low. The Warriors have dropped seven of their last eight, with a few of those losses coming in blowout fashion. Milwaukee has looked a little shakier than it did coming out of the All-Star break, but with a healthy Giannis, this should be a relatively easy victory for a team that typically takes care of inferior competition.
Jaylen Brown over 31.5 PTS+REB+AST (-107) vs. PHI – DraftKings
Brown has gone under this number in four of his last five games, but a few of those were blowout scenarios when his minutes were limited. I like this as a bounceback spot with Evan Fournier out of the lineup. Brown went over 31.5 PTS/REB/AST in six straight games in mid-March, so he's more than capable of getting there when his workload is heavy enough. This should be a close game, so I expect Brown to top 35 minutes tonight.
Marcus Smart over 12.5 points (-107) vs. PHI – DraftKings
Smart's production varies widely from night to night, but he, too, should benefit from Evan Fournier's absence. Since returning to the starting five, Smart is averaging 13.5 points per game, though he's shooting under 42 percent from the field. The Sixers are a difficult defense to attack, but Smart should see a higher minutes total than the 27.5 he's averaged over the last two games (both blowout victories). In two previous matchups against Philly this season, Smart totaled 45 points in 73 minutes, though it's worth noting that the Celtics were dealing with COVID-19-related absences at the time.
Michael Porter over 18.5 points (+105) vs. DET – DraftKings (11:51 AM CT)
I assume we're getting plus odds because the Nuggets are favored by 13.5 points, but I'm not deterred. Yes, the risk of a blowout is entirely possible, but if this game is remotely competitive, I think Porter easily has an opportunity to hit that over. He's been excellent throughout March (20.3 points on average across 16 games) and is going against a Pistons defense that allows the second-most points to opposing power forwards. The plus money is too enticing given the matchup.