Exploiting the Matchups: Week 17 Start/Sit

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Updated on January 2, 2021 11:42PM EST

Week 17 always has an added layer of challenge, trying to sort out all the injuries, "injuries", and rest situations. As of Thursday morning, the Chiefs and Steelers are expected to rest their starting QBs, but that's about all we've seen in terms of announcements/declarations.

While Kansas City is the only team locked into a specific playoff spot, there are three others — Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tampa — that already qualified for the tournament and can only rise or fall by one seed. The Steelers apparently don't care about the difference between the No. 2 seed and No. 3, so it'll be interesting to see how Buffalo responds.

The Bucs have a little more to play for, as a win assures them of a first-round matchup with the NFC East champ, while a Week 17 loss could lead to a game against the Saints or Seahawks next weekend. That sounds pretty significant to me, but we already saw Bruce Arians remove Tom Brady at halftime last week, so don't be too surprised if key players are removed early or don't handle their typical workloads.

In terms of the non-playoff teams, it's a little tougher to figure things out. They won't usually bench their starters, but it is fairly common in the season finale to give backups more playing time than usual.

One team I'm a little wary of is Atlanta, who could still draft as early as third overall or as late as ninth. I don't think the Falcons will bench

One team I'm a little wary of is Atlanta, who could still draft as early as third overall or as late as ninth. I don't think the Falcons will bench healthy starters, but they could be more cautious than usual when it comes to managing injuries, and they might consider an early hook for the likes of Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley.

Really, it works out best for everyone involved if the Bucs beat the Falcons this Sunday. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will play out that way, as players and coaches for the Falcons presumably care about reputation more than they care about draft position for a team they may never work for again after Sunday.

Figuring all this stuff out is a pain in the butt, which is why most fantasy leagues wrap up with Week 16. Keep in mind that Exploiting the Matchups is posted on Thursdays, so a lot could change by the time we get to kickoff Sunday.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

RotoWire's weekly projections
RW weekly composite rankings
RW Betting odds
RW Target share page
RW Snap count page
RW Defense vs. Position stats
RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

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Quarterback

Justin Herbert at KC

This matchup doesn't look great on paper — especially with Keenan Allen (hamstring) likely out again — but it should work out in Herbert's favor thanks to the lack of playoff implications for Kansas City. The last time this happened under Andy Reid was Week 17 of 2017, best remembered as Patrick Mahomes' first NFL start. In addition to Alex Smith, the Chiefs rested a group of key veterans that included LB Derrick Johnson, DE Justin Houston and TE Travis Kelce. This time around, Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu are among the top candidates to sit, while a number of other starters could be removed early.

Honorable Mentions: Ryan Tannehill, TEN at HOU; Kirk Cousins, MIN at DET; Philip Rivers, IND vs. JAX; Drew Lock, DEN vs. LV

Running Back

D'Andre Swift vs. MIN

The 21-year-old will finish out his debut campaign against a Vikings team that dropped to 27th in run-defense DVOA (0.2%) and 28th in rushing yards allowed (134.8 per game) after getting humiliated by Alvin Kamara in Week 16. A matchup with the Lions should be more competitive, but it's still a nice setup for Swift, who has played more than half the offensive snaps in his last four games. In that span, he's averaged 12 carries for 54.3 yards and 4.3 catches for 33.5 yards, not to mention a quartet of touchdowns. The matchup is good enough that Swift can be started with confidence even if QB Matthew Stafford (ankle) doesn't play.

Kareem Hunt vs. PIT

Hunt took just six, seven and four carries the past three weeks, after getting 10 or more in each of his first 12 games this season. Touchdowns and receiving production have kept him afloat from a fantasy perspective, and he should see at least a little more rushing volume this week, as the Browns are favored by 9.5 points with the Steelers expected to rest starters. Maybe we'll still see guys like T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward early in the game, but if Ben Roethlisberger isn't playing at all, it's a good bet the team's defensive stars won't be handling full workloads. Hunt could run wild in the second half, which is when he's done most of his damage — 61 percent of his fantasy points — this year.

Honorable Mentions: David Johnson, HOU vs. TEN; Melvin Gordon, DEN vs. LV; Alexander Mattison, MIN at DET

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb & Michael Gallup at NYG

While top cornerback James Bradberry continues to play at a high level, the Giants secondary is otherwise vulnerable, with PFF grading Isaac Yiadom at No. 81 and Darnay Holmes at No. 110 out of 126 qualified cornerbacks. Bradberry shadowed Amari Cooper and helped limit him to 23 receiving yards in the first matchup between these teams, while Lamb led the Cowboys with 124 yards, and Gallup finished with 73 after a late surge once Andy Dalton replaced an injured Dak Prescott. The target distribution for Dalton has been pretty flat, with Cooper (56) barely seeing more looks than Lamb (55) and Gallup (52).

Brandin Cooks & Keke Coutee at TEN

Tennessee has the worst defense of any probable playoff team, ranking 29th in DVOA (11.1%), 23rd in points allowed (26.7 per game) and 21st in opponent NY/A (6.7). Only the Lions have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers, and the past month has been especially brutal, with the Titans giving up big games to the likes of Rashard Higgins (6-95-1), Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-92-1) and Keelan Cole (7-67-1), They've also been torched by No. 1 receivers over the past month, with Davante Adams, Marvin Jones and Jarvis Landry combining for 29 catches, 316 yards and five TDs on 34 targets.

Honorable Mentions: Marvin Jones, DET vs. MIN; Mike Williams, LAC at KC; Corey Davis, TEN at HOU; T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. JAX;

Tight End

Irv Smith at DET

With Kyle Rudolph (foot) missing another game, Smith figures to play more than 80 percent of offensive snaps for a third straight week. The 22-year-old isn't likely to match his nine targets from the Week 16 loss to New Orleans, but he should get at least a handful of opportunities against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Dalvin Cook's absence could lead to the long-awaited Mattison breakout game, or it could mean more targets for Smith, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Conklin, MIN at DET

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Quarterback

Russell Wilson at SF

A lot has changed since Nov. 1 when Wilson picked the Niners defense apart for a quartet of touchdowns. That was his sixth game in 2020 with 25 or more fantasy points, a mark he hasn't reached since the aforementioned Week 8 contest. Now closing out his regular season against a defense that's given up the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks, Wilson may still be a top-10 option at his position, but he isn't in my top five.

Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. WAS; C.J. Beathard, SF vs. SEA

Running Back

James Conner & Benny Snell at CLE

Conner won't necessarily be rested, but we do know he'll be lining up next to Mason Rudolph instead of Ben Roethlisberger, and there's a good chance some of the Pittsburgh starters who play will get pulled before the fourth quarter. Even if Snell or Anthony McFarland does end up with a bunch of carries, they could be getting them in a toothless offense with a bunch of other backups facing Cleveland's starters.

Giovani Bernard vs. BAL

Bernard put up big numbers the past two weeks, but only after finishing with single-digit fantasy points in five consecutive games, so he's still averaging just 67.2 combined yards in nine starts this year. Samaje Perine got just three fewer carries than Bernard in a close game last week, and the Bengals aren't likely to sustain their recent ground success against a Baltimore defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the run (-20.6%), 15th in opponent YPC (4.4) and ninth in rushing yards allowed (106.2 per game). While the likes of Tennessee and Cleveland have been able to run on the Ravens this year, lesser rushing attacks have routinely been shut down.

Not-so-honorable Mentions: Kenyan Drake, ARZ at LAR; Leonard Fournette, TB vs. ATL

Wide Receiver

Jamison Crowder at NE

Crowder had a huge game last week and seems perpetually underrated, but that doesn't make him a good play for Week 17 against the Patriots. He'll primarily work the slot against Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones, who has allowed just 6.8 YPT while grading out as PFF's No. 13 cornerback. Crowder did score a TD in the first matchup between these teams, but he saw a season-low two targets. He also struggled against the Patriots last year, catching six of 10 targets for 51 yards in two games.

DJ Chark at IND

Chark has lined up wide left on 52 percent of his snaps this year, compared to 29 percent wide right and 19 percent in the slot (per PFF). That gives him a primary matchup with Colts CB Xavier Rhodes, who has allowed just 6.5 YPT and 0.86 yards per cover snap in his age-30 rebound season. Chark did score one of his five TDs this season in the first matchup with Indianapolis, but he finished that Week 1 contest with only three targets and 25 yards.

Not-so-honorable Mentions: Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool & JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT at CLE; Amari Cooper, DAL at NYG; Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd & A.J. Green, CIN vs. BAL

Tight End

Tyler Higbee vs. ARZ

Cooper Kupp's likely absence increases the target share projection for everyone else in the Rams offense, but that isn't enough to make up for the loss of Jared Goff (thumb). Higbee is still in a timeshare with Gerald Everett, and his dependence on touchdowns becomes even more worrisome when the Rams are starting John Wolford instead of Goff.