Half PPR Rankings: QB

Allen was the top fantasy quarterback last year for the third time in four seasons (he was second in his “off” year) thanks to another campaign of high-volume passing and rushing. He was the only QB ranked top 5 in both pass and rush attempts last season, and nobody has more than Allen’s 173 combined pass/rush TDs the last four years. While he threw a four-year-low 29 TD passes, Allen tied Jalen Hurts with 15 rushing scores, an NFL record for quarterbacks. A midseason shoulder injury and a change at offensive coordinator didn’t bother Allen much, and though he threw a career-high 18 interceptions (2nd), his efficiency otherwise dipped only slightly. He threw deep on 11.4 percent of attempts (9th), and his average target depth and YPA ranked third and 10th, respectively (even if both were three-year lows). Allen didn’t get a lot of help from his receivers. Stefon Diggs (eight drops) struggled in the second half of the season, and Gabe Davis had five games without any catches. Both are now gone, but that doesn't mean the receiving group improved. Third-year pro Khalil Shakir has 4.43 speed but only 65 targets through 31 games. So, the Bills signed Curtis Samuel and then drafted Keon Coleman, a second-round pick who is 6-3 but caught only 55 percent of his targets last year at FSU. Tight end Dalton Kincaid, a 2023 first-round pick, might be the new No. 1 target. But even if the passing efficiency dips -- and Allen's rushing TDs are certain to regress -- his combination of pass/rush volume makes him the favorite for overall-QB1 status again.

After ranking as a top-5 fantasy quarterback four of his five years as a starter (twice as No. 1), Mahomes fell to a career-low QB8 last season. He got little help from his wide receivers, who struggled to stretch the field and dropped a league-high 28 passes -- 12.0 percent of catchable targets. A quarter of Mahomes’ attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage and two-thirds were within 10 yards of the line, both career highs, as his average target depth dropped to a career low 6.5 and his YPA followed suit at 7.0. Mahomes also saw a predictable decrease in red-zone pass attempts after the previous season's NFL-record 123, which led to 10 fewer TD passes inside the 20-yard line. Having perhaps the greatest tight end in NFL history covers a lot of ills, however, and Mahomes will again have Travis Kelce as his favorite target this season. No. 1 WR Rashee Rice, who came on strong late last year, could be suspended, but the team signed fleet-footed Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy, a first-round pick who ran a 4.21 40 at the Combine -- the fastest since at least 2003. That’s likely a better group than Mahomes had to begin last year, which, coupled with positive regression in red-zone attempts and rushing scores (none last season), has him poised for a return to the top 5 among fantasy quarterbacks.

Hurts isn’t a necessarily a prolific passer -- 13th in TDs last season, 14th in yards -- but the Tush Push cheat code makes him an easy fantasy bet. After ranking third among QBs in 2022 fantasy scoring, Hurts moved up to second last season behind 15 rushing touchdowns, an NFL record for QBs later tied by Josh Allen. Hurts led quarterbacks with 16 goal-line carries and scored 11 touchdowns on QB sneaks. The Tush Push also keeps drives alive. Hurts converted 24 of 27 QB sneaks on third-and-short and fourth down last season, giving him more fantasy opportunities. Passing wise, Hurts completed 65.4 percent of attempts even as his average target depth jumped to 8.7, fourth deepest in the league. His YPA dropped from 8.0 to 7.2, because he was a little less accurate on attempts of 20-plus yards and his receivers didn’t gobble up as many yards after the catch. In 2022, 50.8 percent of Hurts’ yards came via YAC, compared to only 44.9 percent last season. That might matter for the Eagles, but in fantasy it's of little concern given his three straight seasons with double-digit rushing TDs and more than 600 yards. The addition of running back Saquon Barkley likely will sap some goal-line carries, and center Jason Kelce’s retirement is a consideration (he was the tip of the Tush Push spear), but penciling in Hurts for double-digit rushing scores isn’t wish-casting. As long as his rushing production remains strong, Hurts has a shot at finishing as the top fantasy QB even if his passing never reaches higher levels.

Jackson stayed healthy last season for the first time in three years and, perhaps not surprisingly, won his second NFL MVP award. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken helped Jackson to a career-high 457 pass attempts in 16 games (he sat out a meaningless Week 18), which he combined with elite rushing production to finish fourth among QBs in fantasy scoring. His downfield rate, average target depth and accuracy were basically unchanged from the last few years, but Jackson got more help from his receivers, whose 3.7 percent drop rate and 49.0 yards-after-catch percentage were the best he’s had. That propelled his completion percentage (67.2, 8th) and YPA (8.0, 4th) to career highs, which he turned into 3,678 yards, also a career high. He only threw 24 TD passes, but a league-leading 5.6 rushing average that resulted in a QB-high 821 yards and five scores more than made up for it. His TD total was depressed a bit thanks to Gus Edwards’ 13 scores (3rd among RBs). That perhaps gives Jackson TD upside this year, even with Derrick Henry replacing Edwards in the Baltimore backfield. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are top-notch targets, and if Rashod Bateman or another receiver emerges, so much the better. He might not win MVP again, but as long as Jackson stays healthy he’s a top-5 fantasy QB.

The knock on Stroud entering last year’s draft was his supposedly sub-par processing ability. It took about two games to kill that narrative. The No. 2 overall pick set a rookie record with 191 pass attempts before his first interception -- in Week 6 -- and two weeks later sowed up Rookie of the Years honors when he passed for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns. Stroud’s 4,108 yards -- in 15 games, mind you -- ranked third all-time for a rookie, his 23:5 TD:INT was the second-best ratio by a rookie since the merger and his 8.2 YPA was the highest mark for any rookie since 1970 with at least 300 attempts. The strong-armed Stroud continually pushed the ball downfield with a 9.0-yard average target depth, second in the NFL, and excelled throwing deep, completing 58.8 percent of his attempts of at least 20 yards (2nd), with eight touchdowns and no interceptions. His overall accuracy (22nd in on-target percentage) should improve in Year 2, and the addition of Stefon Diggs gives the Texans one of the league’s better WR trios with the 30-year-old joining Nico Collins and Tank Dell. TE Dalton Schultz returns to give Stroud a fourth playmaking target, and the trade for RB Joe Mixon ensures the Texans have a competent pass catcher in their backfield. At 6-3, 218, Stroud moves well in the pocket, but using his legs a bit more could be the key to unlocking additional fantasy value (QB9 last year).